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Opinion: North African dominance in AFL semis a harsh reality

The inaugural African Football League is now down to the semi-finals, and perhaps unsurprisingly to many, the stage is dominated by north African clubs. The question is: Can this reign be stopped?

Al Ahly, Esperance de Tunis and Wydad Casablanca have all made it to the last four of the flagship competition, while Mamelodi Sundowns are the only side not from the north of Africa to qualify for this phase. But this is by no means a surprising occurrence as the past seven CAF Champions League titles have been won by the aforementioned three north African sides, while the past six CAF Confederation Cup trophies have been claimed by teams from Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco.

Read: AFL: Why big changes to Downs vs Ahly were made 'revealed'

The latest FIFA rankings further reinforce the idea that the north of the continent is stronger, with four of the top five-highest ranked CAF nations in the world today being Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt.

Although the African Football League is fresh out of the box, the tournament is now going down a familiar road, with history showing that the likes of Al Ahly and Wydad more often than not going on to dominate in all continental competitions on their path. The truth is that football is much bigger in countries like Egypt and Morocco, with the latter's domestic top flight has been ranked among the best on the continent over the past decade, while Al Ahly was named the African Club of the 21st Century in 2000, although their time at the top has not regressed.

While dominance in European club competitions is often rotated thanks to the number of top teams from England, Spain, Italy, and Germany, this isn't the case in Africa as there are regions who do not have a competitive advantage, like central and southern Africa, with DR Congo's TP Mazembe perhaps being the only caveat. 

This is certainly down to a range of factors, with north African football federations having pumped more investment into the sport as opposed to other regions on the continent like sub-Saharan and east Africa, and there's an argument to be made that north Africa is wealthier than most parts of the continent too, and therefore are able to invest significant resources into the game. A 2022 report by Yahoo Finance revealed that Egypt and Morocco are two of the richest African countries by net worth, with the former ranked first and the latter nation fourth.

The reality is that resources, infrastructure, proper football governance, and football culture are some of the determining factors in ensuring that clubs and nations perform. Although there's a temptation to simply say that north Africa produces better athletes than any other region, that statement would be grossly inaccurate.

Perhaps the hopes of the rest of Africa are now carried by Sundowns, who are increasingly becoming a force to be reckoned with thanks to their unprecedented dominance in the PSL over the past decade. 

Read: OPINION: Why CAF's two-legged finals format needs scrapping

Downs will face Al Ahly in the first leg of their semifinal on Sunday in Pretoria, while Wydad will take on Esperance that same day in Morocco.

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