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Bafana: The qualification permutations

Bafana Bafana go into their latest AFCON finals match on Sunday night having won just thrice in their previous 21 games at the tournament.

However, encouraging for Bafana is that they are up against one of two opponents that they have overcome at the Nations Cup finals recently in Namibia.

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Though Bafana don't have the best of records at the tournament in the last 20 years one of their more recent wins (1-0) in the last 21 games was against the Brave Warriors at the 2019 edition when the two neighbours were again fixtured to play in the same group.

The plus for Bafana is that they have won both their previous matches against the Namibians at the AFCON finals with the other being the famous 4-1 win in 1998 when Benni McCarthy scored four.

So, two out of two will give Hugo Broos some hope though the dynamics of the latest fixture are different.

broos

Bafana need nothing less than a win at the Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium in Korhogo, Cote d'Ivoire to keep matters related to the business of reaching the knockout stages firmly in their hands.

A win – whichever way it comes – will take Bafana to second place in the group with three points.

This will then mean another win against Tunisia guarantees that they proceed without having to look over their shoulders.

A draw against the Carthage Eagles (after Bafana have been beaten Namibia) will then mean their position is determined by what happens between Mali and Namibia.

If Mali win or draw against Namibia (after Bafana have beaten Namibia) then the West Africans will finish top of the standings with Bafana going through in second place if they draw against Tunisia.

As it stands, six points is definite qualification, four points secures certain passage though it will depend on other results.

The value of four points will differ in that four points acquired by a win over Namibia and a draw against Tunisia will carry more value than a draw against Namibia and a win over Tunisia.

Head-to-head results takes precedence over goal difference for teams that finish on the same number of points.

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With 16 of the 24 nations at the tournament going through to the knockout stages, it will be disastrous if Bafana fail to proceed.

Besides the top two in each group the four best placed third placed teams also go through.


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